Regional climate change for NW Russia

Various investigations of the global and local climate changes carried out in different countries have detected the noticeable increase of the air temperature at the most of weather stations of the world, and, as a result, of the global air temperature too (The Global Climate... 1995; Climate of Europe, 1995; Vinnikov, 1986).
At the same time, there are local differences in comparison with the global warming due to physiographical factors and microclimatic features of some regions. Hence, the detail investigations of variability of climate elements at present time and its possible changes in the future are urgent.

The region of our study (see a map) is located in the north-west part of Russian Federation (60-70o N and 30-40o E) and includes the territories of Murmansk district (with administrative area in 144 900 km2), Karelia Republic (174 200 km2), western part of Arkhangelsk and northern part of Leningrad districts. The previous research allowed developing the data base on principal meteorological and hydrological characteristics of the territory for the period beginning from 1880 up to now, reconstruction of missing data for the separate years and, as a result, constructing continuous monthly- and annual-average time series; analysing the climate data; analysing the dendrochronological data; comparison of the data obtained by direct measurements with model data obtained in MPI (ECHAM-4) for the period 1960-1999; estimating, on this base, the possible climate and water balance changes of studied region in the period 2000-2050 for two scenarios of changes CO2, aerosols and greenhouse gases content at atmosphere of the Earth.

Two tables (tab1 and tab2) contain the following arrays on hydrometeorological information averaged for the territory of Karelia for the period 1880-1999 (measured) and up to 2050 (received with use of the ECHAM-4 model):
R1 is annual river run-off (mm);
T1 is annual air temperature (°C);
R15 is 15-year moving average river run-off (mm);
R15G is 15-year moving average river run-off, 1999-2050, G-scenario (mm);
R15GA is 15-year moving average river run-off, 1999-2050, GA-scenario (mm);
PE15 is 15-year moving average potential evaporation (mm);
PE15G is 15-year moving average potential evaporation, 1999-2050, G-scenario (mm);
PE15GA is 15-year moving average potential evaporation, 1999-2050, GA-scenario (mm);
E15 is 15-year moving average total evaporation (mm);
E15G is 15-year moving average total evaporation, 1999-2050, G-scenario (mm);
E15GA is 15-year moving average total evaporation, 1999-2050, GA-scenario (mm);
T15 is 15-year moving annual air temperature (°C);
T15G is 15-year moving average annual air temperature, 1999-2050, G-scenario (°C);
T15GA is 15-year moving average annual air temperature, 1999-2050, GA-scenario (°C);
P15 is 15-year moving average precipitation (mm);
P15G is 15-year moving average precipitation, 1999-2050, G-scenario (mm);
P15GA is 15-year moving average precipitation, 1999-2050, GA-scenario (mm).

All gaps in R1 and T1 arrays were re-constructed with use of data on river run-off and air temperature for the territory of Finland, data on total run-off of rivers Vuoksa, Volkhov, Svir and other analogous territories. Use of this approach allows receiving continuous arrays of data for the period considered. Arrays xxxG and xxxGA were calculated with use of data from the model mentioned above. In order to make them comparable, all water balance parameters are expressed in mm.
[Abbreviations used: doubling of the greenhouse gases (G-scenario) and greenhouse gases + direct effect of aerosol (GA-scenario)]

Two following pictures show the results of climate modelling for NW Russia received with use of the ECHAM-4 model: